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How much did the cost inputs viz price of steel ,sand ,crew etc increase in the oil patch ? I doubt that there will be a comeback at this price for shale. SS and other stripper well operators are a low OPEX operation, but shale is a high OPEX operation. The result is that the farmers loose money even though the minimum support price is increased. The govt raised the minimum support price for buying grains etc but simultaneously increased price of diesel + 50 %, reduced fertiliser subsidy, pesticide prices up +30%, abolished electricity subsidy etc. Why this cropped up ? In India currently there is a farmer agitation on which I have posted on the other thread. My question ? How much have the inputs gone up that this is an uneconomical price for shale comeback ? In India price of steel is up 55% since 2019, just received an e mail from an old associate of mine from China says steel is up 35%. WTI is now at $ 52 and the buzz is that shale is coming back. Of course nobody correctly estimates the future. At a 25 Mb/d crude output level for OPEC, only 103 days (3.5 months) is needed to get back to a balanced oil market under the assumption that OPEC estimates of future World oil demand and non-OPEC output are both correct.

Note that only 205 million barrels need to be drawn from OECD stocks to bring them close to the December 2019 level when the market was fairly balanced. If OPEC’s World demand estimate for 2021 is correct and their estimate for non-OPEC liquids output is also correct, then an OPEC average output level of 25 Mb/d in 2021 would reduce World stocks of petroleum products and crude by 730 million barrels per day (365 times 2) because average demand for OPEC crude is about 27 Mb/d in 2021. Russian output increased by only 13 kbo/d in December 2020, OPEC13 crude + Russian C+C output increased by 292 kbo/d in December 2020.

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The chart above uses data from the Russian Energy Ministry and converts from metric tonnes to barrels at 7.3 barrels per tonne, the combination is OPEC crude plus Russian C+C output. World liquids output is down by 8.23 Mb/d from 12 months ago, roughly 8%. figure 3 figure 4 figure 5 figure 6 figure 7 figure 8 figure 9 figure 10 figure 11 figure 12 figure 13 figure 14 figure 15 figure 16 OPEC crude output increased by 279 kb/d in December, November output was revised down from last month’s report by 26 kb/d. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is December 2020 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for December 2020 was published this week.

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